The fate of a shaky cease-fire between Iran and the United States is yet again uncertain! Can Gulf diplomacy avert a direct military clash between Washington and Tehran? President Trump has confirmed he has paused a full-scale military campaign against Tehran. Much hyped MilOp codenamed so- called Operation Sledgehammer was set to launch in less than twenty-four hours. In a rare display of total unity, the Governments of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar stepped between Washington and Tehran, convincing the U.S. President that they can negotiate a nuclear deal that could be permanent end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions for long without a single shot being fired.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the American military remains locked, loaded, and ready to strike at a moment’s notice. But for now, the bombs are on hold, and the clock is ticking on the most high-stakes diplomatic gamble of the decade. If nuclear deal to the satisfaction of both sides potentially dubbed as JCPOA 2.o is not materialized, both Iran and US are ready to fire fresh shots. Will this ceasefire last long or is it just a matter of time before the US and Israel launch a massive high intensity military operation ?
SHREYA DAS / SHAILESH KUMAR, NATIONAL DEFENCE
21st MAY 2026, NEW DELHI
Yesterday the clock was ticking but today the clock has paused for Iran. The standstillness of the US Iran war has raised questions on what is next ? Is there going to be a nuclear deal JCPOA 2.0 or failed talks culminate into prolonged war. What strategy Trump might be contemplating?
The war that started on 28th February has gone through different phases of circle with high intensity attack, to mediation talks by Oman followed by the Mediation talk in Islamabad, leading to a ceasefire on 8th April, that has been continued henceforth.
The initial 2 week ceasefire has been extended to 6 weeks now and just when President Trump was about to launch an attack on Iran under so called Operation Sledgehammer, the Gulf requested talks for a potential Nuclear deal!
Now what is this nuclear deal likely between Iran and the USA ? The United States and Iran appear to be moving toward JCPOA 2.0, and Why did Trump withdraw from JCPOA 1 in 2018?
Firstly, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was the landmark nuclear agreement finalized on 14 July 2015 in Vienna. The deal was signed between Iran and the P5+1 countries namely – United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, Germany plus the European Union!
But just 3 years later in May 2018, Trump withdrew from the JCPO 1 calling it “the worst deal ever negotiated”. He believed the agreement was fundamentally flawed and too favourable to Iran.
Just less than a week after the deal in July 2015, the then US Secretary of State, John Kerry in a House Armed Service Committee said that Iran had over 19 thousand centrifuges and around 12 thousand kg of weapongrade nuclear fissile material that was enough to make 10-12 nuclear bomb. Iran would chant death to America, death to Israel, it was in the interest of every American to get rid of Iran’s nuclear weapon.
The decision fundamentally reshaped Middle Eastern geopolitics, driven by five core motivations from the Trump administration.
First, Washington fiercely opposed the deal’s sunset clauses which set key restrictions on Iran’s centrifuges and enrichment to expire after 10 to 15 years. The administration argued this merely delayed, rather than permanently blocked, an Iranian nuclear weapon.
Second, the JCPOA was criticized by the Trump administration for its narrow scope. By focusing strictly on nuclear infrastructure, it ignored Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional proxy networks. With nuclear weapon, ballistic missile is the delivery vehicle and Iran fiercely pursued the ballistic missile development program.
Trump officials contended that billions in sanctions relief were actively being used to fund militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
Third, the move aligned with intense regional pressure from key U.S. allies, specifically Israel and Saudi Arabia who felt directly threatened by a resurgent Tehran. This was amplified in early 2018 when Israel presented intelligence claiming Iran had hidden past weapons research.
Fourth, the withdrawal acted as the catalyst for Trump’s Maximum Pressure campaign. By choking off Iranian oil exports and severing its access to international banking, the administration aimed to cripple Iran’s economy and force them to negotiate a much tougher successor deal.
And Finally, domestic politics played a major role, dismantling the signature Obama-era accord fulfilling a core 2016 campaign promise to the Republican base.
The aftermath remains highly polarized. While supporters argue the ensuing sanctions successfully drained Tehran’s revenue and restored U.S. leverage, critics point out the geopolitical fallout. Iran eventually abandoned its enrichment caps, pushed closer to weapons-grade capability, and severely restricted international inspections leading directly to the heightened regional instability seen today in the Persian Gulf region.
It is clear that an Iran that agreed for JCPOA 1.0 pushed itself to enrich Uranium from sanctioned 3.67 percent to 60% secretly. IAEA confirms Iran has 440 Kg of Uranium. The world understands initial direct Chinese support to Iran’s nuclear weapon to indirect support to its ballistic missile program in later years after China agreed for UN resolution sanctioning Iran against developing nuclear weapon capabilities.
Leading to the current world tensions, The gulf might have proposed a nuclear deal which might be JCPO 2.0. The possible, JCPO 2.0 is what we see as an ultimate beam of hope for the end of the war but it will not be an easy nut to crack since the conflicting nature of demand between the USA and Iran ! According to reports, Washington is demanding a complete halt to high-level enrichment, long-term restrictions, and the total removal or export of Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile.
While Tehran is pushing back they are ready to cap enrichment at a low civilian level, likely around 3.67% and dilute or export their remaining 60% enriched uranium. But they refuse to completely surrender their basic enrichment rights. The U.S. wants a strict 20-year lock on these limits, while Iran is holding out for just five. We can expect the final compromise to land somewhere between 10 to 15 years, backed by highly intrusive inspections.
But timelines mean nothing without verification. The Arms Control Association notes that international inspectors lost critical visibility into parts of Iran’s program during the recent conflict.
To fix this, the new deal forces the return of strict IAEA monitoring, which would include – surprise inspections, 24/7 camera feeds, centrifuge tracking, and real-time uranium accounting at both declared and undeclared sites. In exchange, Iran gets economic oxygen. Tehran’s economy is under severe pressure, making sanctions relief their top priority. Reports suggest potential U.S. concessions could include unfreezing overseas assets, allowing limited oil exports, and easing banking restrictions.
The big formula for compromise also comes down to the physical removal of highly enriched uranium, likely transferring it abroad to nations like Russia. This cuts Iran’s “breakout time” , the time needed to build a nuclear weapon allowing Iran to keep civilian energy infrastructure while losing immediate weapon capability.
Unlike the 2015 deal, this negotiation is happening after direct military confrontation. So the package may also include- reopening the Strait of Hormuz, maritime security guarantees, and limits on attacks by regional proxies.
Speaking of Gulf negotiators, even if they aren’t formal signatories, the Gulf states are set to heavily influence this new framework. Now, don’t expect the Gulf states to formally sign the document. Iran traditionally resists expanding the core negotiations to regional rivals, meaning the main signatories will likely remain the U.S., Iran, European powers, Russia, China, and the IAEA.
Instead, we can look for Gulf integration through parallel talks, side agreements, and regional security frameworks.
The bottom line? JCPOA 2.0 cannot succeed in a vacuum. To build a lasting truce, Washington must balance Tehran’s nuclear limits with the Gulf’s security demands. But nonetheless if this JCPO 2.0 fails, what could be Trump’s full large scale assault on Iran he warned of ?
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