As the motorcade of Donald J. Trump rolled toward the heavily guarded gates of Zhongnanhai — the nerve centre of Chinese power, where generations of Communist Party leaders have shaped the destiny of modern China, all eyes and years were set to listen what two powers would discuss. Presumably, it was clash of titans but what President Xi Jinping said at the great hall of people caught the attention of the world. Xi Jinping United States to overcome the Thucydides trap and create a new paradigm of major‑country relations!
SHAILESH KUMAR & SHREYA DAS, NATIONAL DEFENCE
NEW DELHI 15TH MAY 2026
Strange! Isn’t it? At the peoples great hall, on one side stood United States of America — the architect of the post-World War II order, the guardian of the dollar, the oceans, and the global system it built over seventy years. On the other side stood Peoples Republic of China an ancient civilisation rising with breathtaking speed, determined to reclaim what it believes was its rightful place in history. Looking into President Trump’s eyes, President Xi Jinping said
Xi Jinping Sound bite- “Currently, transformation not seen in a century is accelerating across the globe, and the international situation is fluid and turbulent. The world has come to a new crossroads. Can China and the United States overcome the Thucydides trap and create a new paradigm of major‑country relations? Can we meet global challenges together and provide more stability for the world? And, in the interests of the well‑being of our two peoples and the future of humanity, can we build a brighter future together for our bilateral relations? These are the questions vital to history, to the world, and to the people”.
President Xi Jinping talks about overcoming Thucydides trap! The Thucydides Trap defines the crux of this whole meeting. Before we move further first understand the historical perspective. It was the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who wrote about the conflict between rising Athens and established Sparta before the Peloponnesian War. Thucydides would say and I quote “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
Sparta won the Peloponnesian War that run from 431 to 404 BC, defeating Athens and its allies to become the dominant power in Greece. Supported by Persian funding, the Spartan navy under Lysander achieved a decisive victory at the Battle of Aegospotami in 405 BC, forcing Athens to surrender the following year.
In contemporary world, the Thucydides theory was popularised by Howard scholar Graham Allison drawing a parallel of conflicts and tensions between a rising China and the established superpower United States. So at great hall of peoples Xi Jinping urging Trump to avoid the “Thucydides Trap” means – China’s rise should not automatically lead to conflict with the United States. Both countries should avoid fear, miscalculation, and any confrontation. Competition should not turn into conflicts rather competition be managed peacefully instead of turning into a Cold War or a potential military clash.
On earlier occasions to President Xi and other Chinese leaders talked about China does not seek to replace the U.S. through war. The U.S. should accept China’s growing power and influence. Strategic rivalry should not become armed conflict.
However, Americans have not trusted China as they believe Chinese pursuing a policy of Sun TJu- that primarily says winning a war or subduing your enemy without fighting. Chinese have faced a century of humiliation that lead to a new Chinese thinking of bringing America on its knees without directly fighting. China devised a long-term national strategy, “National Rejuvenation” combining economic reform, industrial policy, infrastructure building, technological self-reliance, export dominance, and state-directed capitalism.
The transformation began under Deng Xiaoping after 1978 and spearheaded by Xi Jinping, who propagated realizing “Chinese Dream” and the core of his philosophy included assimilating Taiwan or Republic of China with mainland China. Chinese aggressive ambitions including territorial expansionism policies with a mix of secretive military programs, fusion of civil military and coercive secret technology and science programs bread more fear psychosis not only in the minds of Americans but amongst neighbours.
Lets first talk Thucydides trap from China’s perspective “Why does China Think the U.S. Is Containing It”. It was a century of humiliation that China faced— a period of national subjugation and trauma in China, spanning roughly from the First Opium War (1839) to the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. During this time, China suffered immense territorial, economic, and political losses, including unequal treaties, foreign interventions, and domestic chaos, marking its decline from a dominant regional power to a semi-colonial state. “One of the most painful symbols of China’s ‘Century of Humiliation’ came in 1860, when British and French troops marched into Beijing and burned the magnificent Old Summer Palace — the imperial pride of the Qing dynasty. Chinese historians still describe it not just as the destruction of a palace, but as the humiliation of an entire civilization by foreign powers.”
Chinese thinking is that China is merely “returning” to its natural historical position. The U.S. wants to stop China’s rise. U.S. alliances like AUKUS, QUAD and US military activities like freedom of navigation patrols in Indo Pacific around China look like encirclement. Taiwan is viewed as unfinished civil war territory. Semiconductor restrictions by US are seen as economic warfare against China. “China believes America fears losing dominance more than it fears Chinese aggression.”
To over a century of humiliation and realizing National Rejuvenation, China set 2049 goal. China not only carried out PLA modernization but pursued policies that sometimes created false fears and sometime genuine fears amongst US policymakers that subsequently put China as a pacing challenge to America. It was the year 1978 when de facto leader Deng Xiaoping opened up the economy touted as major reform that allowed private businesses, foreign investment, export oriented manufacturing. He used to say, “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.” China created Special Economic Zones, invested trillions into infrastructure projects, moved to semiconductors, robotics, aerospace, AI, EVs, biotech, telecom, quantum computing. The major change came in 2013 when Xi Jinping announced Belt and Road Initiative project that US finally felt falled in Thucydides trap.
Chinese pursued policy of String of pearls to tighten noose around its rivals like India by creating civil -military infra. China would often lend money but would behave a shylock. Many countries like US would ban Chinese companies like Huwei and ZTE over fear of spying and stealing technologies. Chinese used all tactics to steal, procure high prohibitive, secretive technologies though its 1000 talent program, 863 program,973 program and cyber espionage. China first started copying high tech items but slowly developed capabilities to product at massive scale such stolen tech products including fighter jets, engines, missile tech.
The U.S. GDP in 1990 was about 15 times the size of China’s economy. But by 2025,
according to the International Monetary Fund’s data, the U.S. GDP was only 1.5 times larger than that of China According to the World Intellectual Property Organization, China overtook the U.S. in R&D expenditure for the first time in 2024. While China’s share in global exports across sectors such as electronics and minerals has grown, the U.S.’s share has seen a gradual decline. China’s share in global vehicle exports has grown from less than 1% in 1995 to over 13% in 2024.
China’s military expenditure in PPP terms is estimated to be $541 billion, or 59% of US spending, and its equipment levels are only 42% of US levels.
According to world bank in 2021, China’s real per capita GDP was $156, one-fifth that of the United States during that time, which had a GDP per capita of $10,565. China has a 4.3% greater growth rate than the United States.
The fear of falling in Thycidides trap is so overwhelming that China is often accused of using its own friends to pitch against its greatest rival. To weaken United States, China is accuse of helping US adversaries like Russia, Iran and North Korea. Whether it is Ukraine war, or US- Israel Iran war, US accuse China of providing not only real time intelligence but also the arms, ammunition and spares. China is known to create rift between friends to put forth its own sphere of influence. It is not only hard power but soft power China uses to achieve Chinese dreams but US always criticize China of not having a peaceful rise and on the contrary China preaches peace to the world.
What do you have to say on Xi Jinping invoking Thycidides trap to describe the relation in real world situation, do let us know!
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