Two superpowers fighting to outrun each other in geopolitics crumble at the centre of gravity. Not even a week gone by when Trump finished his state visit to China, Russia’s Putin lands at Xi’s doorstep. Uncommon in diplomacy but a new reality of geo- politics where two opponents on same axis are being balanced by the centre of gravity- the China. Putin struggles not to let China drift away from its sphere of influence. Trump pursued a reverse Nixon policy of using Russia against rising China. But China now grown so big in world economy and diplomacy using Russia a friend and USA a rival in triangular diplomacy. Today a weaken Russia needs China more than vice- e versa. Post its Special Military Operation in Ukraine that followed US sanctions, Russia trapped in Chinese diplomatic weiqi or the game of go. To survive the mess of strait of hormuz created by Iran war and US naval blockade, Russia needs China to approve and implement Altai Gas pipeline! Out of 20 trade agreements both leaders are to sign during the 2 day Beijing visit of Putin, it is Altai Gas pipeline dubbed as Power of Siberia 2 Natural Gas pipeline, that has drawn the attention of the world! The Strategist in this episode reveals the inside story of global power shift as Altai Gas Pipeline powers the Chinese economy!
SHREYA DAS / SHAILESH KUMAR, NATIONAL DEFENCE
21st MAY 2026, NEW DELHI
Xi Jinping’s very dear friend Putin visits Beijing just 4 days after the Russia’s rival US President Donald Trump concluded his meeting with Xi Jinping! The bonhomie between both leaders seen was in stark contrast what we witnessed during Trump’s Beijing visit.
Both leaders signed 20 agreements between the two nations and the mother of all deals between China and Russia is considered the construction of Altai Gas pipeline or Power of Siberia 2 Natural Gas Pipeline.
Putin’s China visit coincides 30 years of Strategic Partnership and cooperation and 25 years of the formation of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Both leaders have met on more than 40 other occasions. Now this meeting is strategically important in terms of the global power shift and ongoing crisis in the world.
According to Yuri Ushakov, a senior Russian diplomat the two leaders would discuss all areas of bilateral relations, including the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
Yuri Ushakov was quoted by media saying, “We are expecting that the two sides will update each other on the situation in the Middle East, as well as Ukraine. No doubt, will also talk to Putin about what was discussed with Donald Trump last week,”.
Russia has been pushing China to move forward with the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would add 50 bn cubic metres of capacity to the network between the two countries. The proposed 2,600-km Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is anticipated to transport 50 billion cubic metres of gas annually to China via Mongolia from the Arctic gas fields in Yamal. This is around 12% of China’s total gas consumption, based on 2025 estimates.
The deal had been stalled for years due to disagreements over price, but earlier this week, media reports said that Russian gas giant Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation had signed a preliminary deal.
PJSC Gazprom, a Russian state-owned multinational energy corporation was set to construct the Power of Siberia 2, initiated a feasibility analysis for the project in 2020 and revealed a legally binding 30-year supply agreement in September 2025.
But the Siberia 2 gas pipeline project has been delayed because of disputes regarding cost. During the September meeting, Putin stated that the gas price in the system would be determined by a market formula similar to the one for Russian shipments to Europe.
Both nations could not come to consensus due to which the project was derailed! But this meeting today seems to be unlocking the potential of the project Siberia 2 ! This project is especially important for Russia, because since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been cut off from most of its European customers. Russia faced huge US sanctions and its after loosing US and European market, Russia’s dependence on China grown multi-fold for Chinese Yuan to fuel its own economy.
This pipeline project would enhance the current Power of Siberia 1 system, which already delivers significant quantities of Russian gas to China. Power of Siberia 1 supplied around 38 billion cubic metres of gas last year, which was agreed to increase to 44 bcm during Xi Jinping’s and Putin’s last meeting in September.
The Siberia 1 directly connects Russia’s vast Siberian gas fields (Chayanda and Kovykta) to energy markets in northeastern China, reaching as far south as Shanghai. This pipeline alone has benefited Russia with an estimated sale price of $350 to $400 per 1,000 cubic meters and China because they receive the product at balanced market prices, not at the inflated prices of the European market, a rough estimate of $350 per thousand cubic meters, slightly less than the $380 per tcm average for Gazprom sales to Europe
The Power of Siberia enters China at Heihe in the industrial northeast, 500 kilometers from Harbin and 1,600 kilometers from Beijing, while the Central Asia–China pipeline crosses the border into Xinjiang, 3,000 kilometers from Beijing across the Gobi Desert. This alone demonstrates how the second Siberia 2 gas pipeline would be a strategic pipeline route to cut off the importance of gas dependence from the strait of Hormuz.
The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline not only reduce the risk of China’s shipping lanes via Strait of Hormuz, Bab- Al Mandeb, Strait of Malacca or via Taiwan Strait but also it make Russian pipeline secure from any potential sabotage like Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a $11 billion and 1,230 km natural gas pipeline designed to transport up to 55 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia to Germany across the Baltic Sea was completed in 2021 but rendered inoperable due to geopolitical conflicts and sabotage.
Now the Siberia 2 Pipeline would also be surged notably since Russia’s loss of a substantial portion of its European gas market due to sanctions and political strife following the Ukraine war.
Prior to the conflict, Europe was one of Russia’s most lucrative energy clients. Nevertheless, limitations on Russian energy exports compelled Moscow to hasten initiatives to reroute supplies to Asian markets, particularly China.
But what really made Putin to suddenly visit China was Trump’s statement in an interview to Fox News saying “They’ve agreed they want to buy oil from the United States, they’re going to go to Texas, we’re going to start sending Chinese ships to Texas and to Louisiana and to Alaska”.
This raised anxiety in Kremlin, which seen China drifting away from its sphere of influence moreover, if China starts buying LNG from US, Russia already under dollar pressure would face Yuan crunch.
The Power to Siberia 2 pipeline presents multiple strategic benefits for Russia like – a sustainable substitute market for missing European gas exports, Increased resistance to Western sanctions, and Increased presence in Asian energy sectors. This indicates Russia’s wider geopolitical shift toward Asia as its ties with Europe and the United States keep worsening.
While talking about China, despite being one of the largest energy importers globally and already acquiring substantial quantities of Russian oil and gas, China has approached the project with caution.
Chinese officials have issued fairly few public comments regarding Power of Siberia 2, and discussions are said to remain challenging due to disputes over pricing models and contract conditions. Russia reportedly wants a pricing formula similar to the system previously used for European gas exports, while China seeks more competitive long term pricing terms. This is nothing but exploiting Russian anxiety. China is known to arm twist in its secretive trade war strategy.
For China, the circumstances are more stable. While Beijing enjoys the advantage of lower-priced Russian energy, it doesn’t experience the same urgency as Moscow. China’s varied import network provides it with greater bargaining power in pricing negotiations, hence giving China an upper hand in bargain!
If China gets massive Russian gas via the proposed pipeline, this could reshape the entire global LNG market. China currently imports gas from countries like Qatar, Australia, Turkmenistan, the United States, Malaysia, and Russia. If Russia supplies much more gas through Power of Siberia 2, then China may reduce some LNG imports from other suppliers.
The initiative further emphasizes changing global energy patterns. With Europe lowering its reliance on Russian energy, Asia is becoming more vital to Russia’s economic prospects. This shift may permanently alter global energy trade dynamics in the upcoming decades.
After cutting Russian pipeline gas, Europe became heavily dependent on LNG imports. So LNG originally meant for Asia could increasingly flow toward European countries particularly Germany, Italy, France and Eastern European countries replacing Russian energy. The trend is already in upswing post Ukriane war.
If China buys more Russian pipeline gas, then LNG exporters, who looses Chinese market may aggressively target India. As India is expected to sharply increase natural gas use over the next decade will have potentially cheaper LNG available for India, stronger bargaining power, and more competition among suppliers. In short, India could become one of the biggest winners strategically.
But overall, the China can leverage the abundant LNG supply to further spread its global influence with increased Russian dependence on it. This simply means US loosing its energy leverage in Asia and South Asia. China, which studied every bit from Ukraine war likely to not depend on its continental energy supplier but will continue buying from other sources as well.
There is strategic shift with Putin’s Beijing visit in the wake of Trump’s visit. Both Russia and China that boasted of all weather friendship for quite long time found Russia sweating with Trump’s Beijing visit.
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