Industrialization is back in United States of America. Offshore Industry policy is reversed to have them onshore. Why USA is focussing so much on trade deals? World’s most potent super-power reeling through issues of resilient supply chain! In case of global conflict, dependence on ‘some’ countries for rare critical raw materials would make America vulnerable. An America, who post world war 2 relegated communist Soviet Union and China through a policy of containment that led to cold war is now back on the same policy of Harry S. Truman. National Defence Editor, Shailesh Kumar, reasons and analyzes why protracted Russia- Ukraine war still lingers on despite Donald Trump making it an election pitch that he will stop the Russia- Ukraine war on day one of his assuming the presidency. That also explains why US President Donald Trump time and again says that he stopped a potential nuclear war between India and Pakistan!
Shailesh Kumar, National Defence
New Delhi, 04 June 2025
There is new fillip in Russia Ukraine war. On 1st June , Ukraine in a meticulously planned drone offensive targeted Russian military airbases deep inside Russian territory. In an operation codenamed Spider’s Web, Ukraine struck five major Russian airbases: Belaya, Dyagilevo, Ivanovo Severny, Olenya, and Voskresensk. The strikes resulted in the destruction and severe damage of over 40 Russian military aircraft, including strategic bombers like the Tu-95 and Tu-22M3, as well as A-50 airborne early warning aircraft. This accounted for approximately 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers, inflicting an estimated $7 billion in damages.
Watch full analysis in the video why Russia Ukraine war is not stopping!
The spurt in Russia Ukraine conflict came on 25th May barely a week before Ukrainian attack when Russia in an unprecedented assault deployed 298 drones and 69 missiles in largest airstrike since the full-scale invasion that began in February 2022. The attack resulted in 14 deaths and 70 injuries across 13 regions, including Kyiv, and targeted critical infrastructure, residential areas, and military sites. These escalations occurred just before new peace talks brokered by US and Turkey scheduled in Istanbul as Ukraine confirms that the delegation would be led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The incident underscores heightened tensions and advanced military tactics ahead of diplomatic efforts to end the ongoing conflict.
Why there is sudden escalation when peace talks are scheduled? Isn’t intriguing? Today, I am going to uncover a very well- guarded, veiled top secret on Ukraine war. The west says that it is Russia’s hybrid war that threatens West’s particularly Europe’s security. A narrative of Russia’s hybrid war in Crimea was set that… Russia in 2014 occupied Crimea out of Ukraine without firing a bullet. And even today, Europe talks about Russia’s Hybrid threats. We may not deny or reject their apprehensions. But today, I am going to present you something unimaginable. Some thing that can not easily be believed. A hybrid warfare that instigates, incite or provoke a nation to go to war. There has to have some motives. Correct. So, my careful analysis with facts and figures presents a completely different story.
To come to the point directly, It was the deep state of United States of America that has secretly launched hybrid warfare against Russia with primary aim of targeting not only Russia but also its all weather ally China and Europe that was moving in Chinese sphere of influence. Wonder why I am saying Europe, please do watch full video to understand the full picture with perspective. Is current Trump administration also part of the hybrid warfare. No, not so blatantly and directly as was the previous administration. However, in US, Government may change but not the American interests. And there is just one simple interest— And that is to keep America the most powerful nation in the world and maintain its suzerainty.
So if we go back to the Russia Ukraine war, the first question that needs to be answered is— who gains most from the Ukraine war. Is Russia a winner— you would say no- it has lost huge number of military equipment, soldiers, faced sanctions and has put economy on the backburner. Second question— is Ukraine the winner- obviously No. Lost territory, lost soldiers, civilians, cities, come under huge debt of US and Europe. Then who is the winner in Russia Ukraine War? Why Russia went to war, if it is not gaining? Why Ukraine still fighting and backed off from Minsk agreement. And the big question, if USA is the winner than why President Trump talking to stop the Ukraine War and why would he start the global tariff war and ruffle features with own ally and friends.
I am going to answer all these with facts and figures and historical perspective. But for simplicity, two orders were challenged and changed. One is the global order and another one is Space order.
In August 1939, Soviet Union and Germany signed a non- aggression treaty known as Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Under the secret agreement, Poland was divided into sphere of influence between Germany and Soviet Union.
In the beginning Soviet Union was standing with Nazi Germany led by Adolf Hitler. When Hitler sent troops to Poland on 1st September 1939, Soviet Union also joined invasion of Poland on September 17, 1939, in a coordinated move with Nazi Germany. The Soviets claimed they were acting to “protect” the Ukrainian and Belarusian populations in eastern Poland, a region they considered part of their sphere of influence.
In May 1940 the German Blitzkrieg rolled westwards and France was conquered in six weeks. However, with time this alliance broke down and things took complete U turn.
Germany invaded the Soviet Union on 22nd of June 1941 under “Operation Barbarossa” primarily due to a combination of ideological and strategic factors. Hitler saw the Soviet Union as a major obstacle to his expansionist goals in Eastern Europe and viewed its communist ideology as an existential threat to his own. He also aimed to seize resources and Lebensraum or living space for German expansion.
Soviet Union responded by implementing a “scorched earth” policy, mobilizing reserve armies, and forging alliances with Britain and the United States to counter the German advance. The Soviet Union’s “scorched earth” policy was directed to destruction of infrastructure and resources as the Germans advanced, to hinder their progress and prolong the fight. The Soviets also reorganized their military, with Stalin taking direct control and shifting to a strategy of multiple offensives, though initially, they faced heavy casualties.
During world war- 2, after being attacked by Japan at Pearl Harbour in December 1941, USA declared war against Japan and joined world war- 2 and fought alongside Soviet Union, Britain, France. China also fought against Nazi Germany. Along with the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union, China, the United States, formed the “Big Four” of the Allied Powers.
With the defeat of Axis power involving Germany, Japan and Italy in World War- 2, USA and Soviet Union emerged as World’s Superpowers. Along with U.K. they pushed forward for formation of United Nations to prevent future conflict.
Representatives from 50 nations gathered in San Francisco and drafted the UN Charter, which laid the groundwork for the organization. The Charter was signed on June 26, 1945, and the UN officially came into existence on October 24, 1945, after its ratification by key nations.
However, with breakdown of allied powers— the wartime alliances, fueled by ideological differences and differing visions for the post-war world, particularly in Eastern Europe, marked the beginning of the indirect conflict called Cold War between US and Soviet Union.
During Cold war, 33rd US President Harry S Trumen pursued the policy of containment through offering aid and support to democracies wanted to contain communist influence. This resulted in the form of NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed in 1949 as a military alliance between the United States, Canada, and several Western European nations to provide collective security against the Soviet Union.
The alliance was established to prevent communist expansion in Europe and was formalized with the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty on April 4, 1949. So now the NATO, the military alliance was representing the Western Block.
Whereas the Eastern Block led by Soviet Union formed Warsaw Pact Organisation or WPO. The Warsaw Pact, the military alliance, formally the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, was a collective defense treaty signed in Warsaw, Poland, between the Soviet Union and seven other Eastern Bloc socialist republics of Central and Eastern Europe in May 1955, during the Cold War.
To cut short, Some of the major events of cold war between Soviet Union and USA were marked by Cuban Missile Crisis, the Berlin Wall’s construction and fall, the Korean and Vietnam Wars, the Space Race, and the Soviet Union’s dissolution.
All through the cold war both Russia and US strived hard to surpass each other in space. However, for long time Russia took the lead in space whether it is the launch of first artificial satellite sputnik, sending an animal in space Laika, first man in space Yuri Gagarin, first women in space Valentina Tereshkova, first space walk by Alexei Leonov, First Space Station Salayut -1 in 1971, first Lunar impact Luna-2 (1959), first moon landing (soft) of Luna 9 in 1966, First Lunar rover Lunokhod -1 in 1970, first interplanetary probe Venera series to Venus 1961 onwards.
However, during the cold war both nations tried to sabotage each others’ space program. Russia’s Yuri Gagarin was dreaming to go to moon and Russians were excited about it. He was the first man in the world to encircle the earth in space.
It was the great feat however, before Russia could have sent Yuri Gagarin to moon, first man in space died in a mysterious aircraft crash on 27th March 1968. It was a big jolt for Russia.
The very next year On July 20, 1969, Neil Armstrong and Apollo 11 Lunar Module pilot Buzz Aldrin became the first people to land on the Moon, and the next day they spent two and a half hours outside the Lunar Module Eagle spacecraft while Michael Collins remained in lunar orbit in the Apollo Command Module Columbia. When Armstrong first stepped onto the lunar surface, he famously said: “That’s one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind.”It was broadcast live to an estimated 530 million viewers worldwide.
Apollo 11 was a major U.S. victory in the Space Race, by fulfilling a national goal proposed in 1961 by President John F. Kennedy “of landing a man on to the Moon and returning him safely to the Earth” before the end of the decade.
During these years of conflict, both countries also saw co-operation and collaboration in space. In 1975, Apollo–Soyuz was the first crewed international space mission, carried out jointly by the United States and the Soviet Union in July 1975. Millions of people around the world watched on television as an American Apollo spacecraft docked with a Soviet Soyuz capsule. The project, and its “handshake” in space, was a symbol of détente between the two superpowers amid the Cold War.
Before we discuss further most crucial aspect of space race between the two super powers, lets jump into how Chinese were playing in cold war.
China’s role in the Cold War is interesting because it didn’t just side with one bloc.
It played a strategic realpolitik game between the USA and USSR. China used the rivalry between the two superpowers to assert its own independent path. Both superpowers saw value in engaging with China to prevent it from falling completely into the other’s sphere.
Lets go into history briefly, both Russia and China has a serious border dispute and during cold war in 1968, and 7 month long undeclared military conflict brought both countries to the brink of war near Damansky or Zhenbao Island and Ussuri or Wusuli river. Chinese, who opened up their economy to the world and brought major reforms were perturbed with often occurring border disputes.
On the Warshaw Pact side, fissures started erupting. Due to internal pressures within member states and a shift in Soviet priorities and consequential revolution of 1989 – the fall of communism resulted in the collapse of most Marxist–Leninist governments in the Eastern Bloc that led to formal dissolution of Warsaw pact on 1st July 1991 in Prague. The Soviet Union also got dissolved that year. The end of the alliance’s 36-year-long existence and signaled the end of the Cold War.
Peoples’ Republic of China, who wanted to be part of the UNSC was initially opposed by US. China on the other hand indirectly contributed to the erosion of Soviet global influence by splitting the communist world and forcing the USSR to divert resources. USSR from the beginning was in full support of PRC instead of Republic of China. Both superpowers — the U.S. and Russia saw value in engaging with China to prevent it from falling completely into the other’s sphere.
As UN General Assembly adopted Albanian and Algerian resolution 2758 on 15th November 1971, Peoples’ Republic of China or the PRC dethroned Republic of China— the ROC or Taiwan. Now PRC started sitting in UNSC meetings from 23rd November 2071.
USA after the adoption of resolution started recognizing PRC in UN. The U.S. used China as a counterbalance to the Soviet Union in Asia.
Deng Xiaoping after assuming the power in 1978 spearheaded the economic reform and opened-up economy to the west.
This policy shift from socialist economy to market driven capitalist economy paved China way to progress. However, the need for peace and stability on border was never felt greater than in 2001 when China was pushing for WTO membership that year. Then came the breakthrough. It was in July 2001 both Russia and China signed a 2001 Sino- Russian Treaty of Friendship. Article 9 of the treaty was on a similar line to NATO’s article 5 and talked about immediate contact and consultations with each other if any one of them is threatened so the threat can be eliminated.
The agreement gave a push to stability in both China and Russia and Chinese could now focus more on economic development. Five months later in December 2001 China joined World Trade Organisation— and became the 143rd member of the WTO. China’s GDP was growing but at slow pace until 2001.
With WTO membership, Chinese economy got wings and there was a need for peace and stability for economic prosperity. In October 2003, both China Russia finally resolved their border dispute permanently. China was granted control over Tarabarov Island, which is also known as Yinlong Island, Zhenbao Island, and around 50% of Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island, also known as Heixiazi Island, near Khabarovsk. That gave a sudden spurt to Chinese economy.
In July 2008, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov signed additional Sino Russian Border Agreement that finally settled the remaining eastern part of the border. The rise of the Chinese economy has been exponential since then and U.S.A. stated feeling heat, threatened with pacing Chinese challenge and more so both Moscow and Beijing will boast of their all-weather friendship.
However, Russian economy will not flourish the way Chinese seen the rise. With overt, covert way, Chinese got the west’s technology. It imbibed Russian technology through tech transfers and then reverse engineered them.
Chinese have acquired Ukrainan defense manufacturing firms and started hiring the Ukrainian resources. It collaborated with Russia, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan to develop an ecosystem. It started developing hypersonic weapons, fifth and sixth generation aircraft. Russia meanwhile also grew its space power and developed hypersonic weapons, much ahead of USA.
The Avangard is one of the six new Russian strategic weapons unveiled by Russian President Vladimir Putin on 1 March 2018. Kh-47M2 Kinzhal— the Russian hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile was first tested in 2018 and has been operational since then. In March 2022, it was reportedly used in combat during the conflict in Ukraine, marking one of the earliest known uses of hypersonic weapons in warfare.
3M22 Zircon A sea-launched hypersonic cruise missile capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 9 entered service in 2022. Russia confirmed its use in combat, although specific dates and details remain limited.
Oreshnik Missile- On November 21, 2024, Russia employed the strategic Oreshnik hypersonic missile for the first time in a strike on a military-industrial facility in Dnipro, Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin confirmed its use and indicated plans for continued testing in combat scenarios as a strategic weapon if US and UK continued supplying Ukraine with Long Range missiles like ATACMS and Storm Shadow that have reach inside Russian territories. Russia is outraged by West providing military aid to Ukraine that is prolonging the war.
When Russia demonstrated its Hypersonic capability, Russian secret weapon shocked the United States as now US air defense become vulnerable. US had no interceptor for such Hypersonic weapon. Their hypersonic weapon development program was found to be years behind the Russians. So, in December 2019, U.S. under Trump Administration-I announced its Space Force— first ever space military force for outer space. This development set off the space military race as never before.
Both countries have pursued programs for active militarization of space. The Soviet Union developed military space stations under the Almaz program, equipped with 23mm autocannons for defense. These were experimental and not part of a deployed weapons system. Almaz program was followed by Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Weapons program. The USSR tested co-orbital ASAT systems in the 1970s and 1980s that could destroy enemy satellites using kinetic impact.
With Russia, US, China also developed top notch anti – satellite weapon capabilities. However, in 2021–2023, the U.S. and allies accused Russia of testing “inspector satellites” that could potentially act as weapons and were capable of approaching or interfering with other satellites. In February 2024, the U.S. intelligence community revealed that Russia was working on a space-based anti-satellite nuclear weapon. It was not yet deployed, but the plan raised global alarm bells because it could threaten satellites and space infrastructure.
Both countries who were trying to outpace each other saw a new player emerging and taking the lead. The new kid on the block was China— a real and pacing challenge to US hegemony. So how it all started, we need to briefly touch the history.
Now coming back to Russia and US space program— post world war- 2, both countries collaborated on International Space Station. The ISS began in the 1990s, combining the American Freedom program and the Russian Mir-2 project. Russian Roscosmos collaboration also included space agencies from Europe, Japan, and Canada decided to jointly build and operate the ISS. However, this program is to end by 2030.
Meanwhile, Russia’s Roscosmos was growing its proximity with European Space Agency for mars mission and both started working on mars mission in 2013. However, Geopolitical tensions and Covid emergence led to delays on landing of Rosalind Franklin rover on mars that was supposed to drill 2 meters into mars surface to gather proofs of past life.
Technical failure and corruption scandals in Russia were attributed to delays. U.S. though discreetly was wary of Europe collaborating with Russia for mars mission as USA with NASA and Elon Musk’s Space X was looking in for success to the extent of creating a Martian base and developing colonies.
In December 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order that directed US space program to send astronauts to the moon and “eventually Mars.”
Vladimir Putin, in a 2018 documentary, pledged a Russian Mars mission in 2019, potentially aiming to beat SpaceX and other spacefaring companies. This was in response to Elon Musk’s announcement of a SpaceX Mars mission, sparking a space race.
If Russia become successful in mars mission ahead of US, that would greatly change the geopolitical dynamics undermining US hegemony. The latest space race was preceded by Ukrainian revolution of dignity at Euromaidan in November 2013 involving a wave of large-scale protests that began in response to President Yanukovych’s decision not to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union, instead choosing closer ties to Russia.
Euromaidan soon developed into the largest democratic mass movement in Europe since 1989 Rukh moment for its independence. Earlier that year the Verkhovna Rada the Ukrainian parliament had overwhelmingly approved finalizing the agreement; Russia had pressured Ukraine to reject it.
On 21 February, Yanukovych and the parliamentary opposition signed an agreement to bring about an interim unity government, constitutional reforms and early elections. Police abandoned central Kyiv that afternoon and the protesters took control. Yanukovych fled the city that evening. The next day, 22 February, the Ukrainian parliament voted to remove Yanukovych from office by 328 to 0 (about 73% of the parliament’s 450 members). Yanukovych claimed this vote was illegal and asked Russia for help. Russia described the events as a coup.
Pro-Russian, counter-revolutionary protests erupted in southern and eastern Ukraine. Russia occupied and then annexed Crimea, while armed pro-Russian separatists seized government buildings and proclaimed the independent states of Donetsk and Luhansk, sparking the Donbas war. Let me further elaborate this with perspective.
Here Russia’ who recognized the Ukrainian sovereignty after the dissolution of USSR, did not want to move it away from its own sphere of influence and was wary of any membership of NATO to Ukraine. USA knew the Russian redlines and very well understood that Ukraine could be used as proxy for prolonged war with Russia to weaken it.
That is why US initiated the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances in 1994. The US initiative was strongly supported by United Kingdom. And in 1994, Russia signed Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine gives up its inherited nuclear arsenal (the third-largest in the world) in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the U.S., and the UK.
As US military got winds of growing Russia China ties and enhanced co-operation in hypersonic and space technologies from 2012 onwards. American deep state started countering Russia through old tactics impinging on Russia’s security. In 2008, NATO promised eventual membership to Ukraine and Georgia. By 2013, NATO and Ukraine held joint military exercises code named Rapid Trident.
Russia saw these as a serious intrusion into its traditional sphere of influence. Meanwhile, U.S. and NATO continued to build a missile defense shield in Europe. Key components were placed in Romania and Poland. Russia argued that this system could neutralize its nuclear deterrent, despite NATO’s claims that it was aimed at threats from Iran.
In late 2013, the EU pushed for Ukraine to sign an Association Agreement under its Eastern Partnership initiative. Although this was an EU (not NATO) initiative, Russia viewed it as part of a Western geopolitical strategy to pull Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit. As told earlier, this contributed to the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine (starting November 2013), which ultimately led to the 2014 revolution and Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Amid these developments, NATO conducted more military exercises near Russia, particularly in the Baltic region and the Black Sea. Russia interpreted these as encroachment and provocations.
While NATO and Ukraine were used to contain Russia and consequently China, meanwhile USA continued to expedite its space and hypersonic weapon program. It found that it requires rare earth elements, particularly those used to create strong magnets, are crucial for various navigation and control systems on spacecraft, which are essential for missions to Mars.
The same requirement also felt for hypersonic weapons. Rare Earth Elementss like neodymium and samarium are vital components in reaction wheels and control moment gyroscopes, helping to stabilize and orient spacecraft. REEs like neodymium, dysprosium, and samarium are used in High-performance magnets for actuators and motors, miniaturized sensors, gyroscopes, and accelerometers in inertial navigation systems (INS). These systems must survive and function under extreme acceleration, heat, and pressure.
Rare Earth Elements like Yttrium, gadolinium, and europium are used in Communication and Targeting Electronics, Advanced radar systems, Electronic warfare (EW) components, RF and microwave shielding. For thermal Protection and High-Temperature Alloys, REEs are not the primary heat shield materials, elements like cerium or lanthanum may be used as additives in high-temperature ceramics or composites that protect the airframe.
United States Military Industrial Complex is the core of its supremacy in the world. To thrive the defense industry complex besides other high tech industries minerals are critical need of US or for that matter of any country in the world. Ukraine was a major part of the Soviet Union’s industrial and mining system.
The USSR conducted extensive geological surveys, many of which identified mineral-rich areas, including Rare Earth Elements, especially in Kirovohrad Oblast, Zhovti Vody and Donbas region. After 1991, U.S. and European geological agencies began collaborating with Ukraine to map mineral resources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published reports identifying Ukraine’s Rare Earth Elements reserves, especially monazite sands, which contain thorium and Rare earth elements.
After Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the U.S. increased its strategic interest in Ukraine, not just militarily, but also economically and resource-wise. In 2021, Ukraine and the U.S. signed a strategic agreement on critical minerals under the Biden administration. This included data-sharing, investment scouting, and potential supply chain diversification.
The European Union also identified Ukraine as a potential alternative source for Rare Earth Elements to reduce dependence on China. The NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme funded some resource and environmental projects in Ukraine, which often involve mapping and technological infrastructure — including mineral assessments. So now you would understand that this is not just the friendship or only border security that is driving the US, NATO or European allies but critical minerals are behind this.
The US Ukraine deal signed on 10 November 2021 during the COP26 summit in Glasgow, Scotland between U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm and Ukraine’s Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko was immediate provocation for Vladimir Putin to launch Special Military Operation to stop Ukraine falling away from its sphere of influence because this would not only undermine Russia’s security but would severely compromise its sovereignty.
Amid rising Russia Ukraine tensions, on 21st February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would formally recognize the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) – two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, controlled by Russian-backed separatists since 2014.
This recognition however violated international law since these regions were internationally recognized as Ukrainian territory. Putin also signed “friendship and mutual assistance treaties” with DPR and LPR.
On 22nd February 2022 – Russia’s so called peacekeeping troops move in. However, these troop movements were widely seen as a de facto military invasion, even though it wasn’t yet a full-scale war. At this point (Feb 22), fighting hadn’t exploded yet, but a big war was now very likely.
On early morning of 24th February 2022 – the Full-scale Russian invasion begun as Putin announced a “special military operation” in Ukraine. Russian forces launched airstrikes across Ukraine, invaded from: North (Belarus) toward Kyiv, East (Russia and Donbas) toward Kharkiv and Donetsk, South (Crimea) toward Kherson and Mariupol, Ukrainian cities were bombed, and the full war started.
Barely months after the start of the war, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines were blown off in 4 explosions. The leaks occurred in Swedish and Danish waters, with explosions measured at a seismic magnitude of 2.3. The Nord Stream gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea, built to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany, bypassing Eastern Europe. Russia blamed United States for the explosions. A Ukrainian special forces officer was arrested but Ukraine denied its role claiming it lacks capabilities for such an act. The Europe which was dependent on Russia gas supply would not buy gas from USA.
A war that continues even after 3 years. Even after four and half months after Donald Trump taking over the charge of his second administration while he made his election pitch that he will stop the war on day 1. Trump initiated the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine however, no major breakthrough could be achieved despite Ukraine declaring a 30 days ceasefire and Russia a 3 day for celebration of Victory day.
Trump’s was even criticized of being soft on Putin and world had seen drama when Zelensky visited Oval office. You would wonder soon after leaving from Oval office, Zelensky visited UK. The same UK who has been behind US in all deals / agreements / negotiations when it comes Ukraine.
Russia is wary of US Ukriane mineral deal is once again proved by the fact that Russian intelligence got wind that on 27th May both US and Ukraine are going to sign the mineral deal. That alerted and altered the Russian mind as it became clear that there is much bigger design and strategic game plan. Stopping the war is not the endgame. The beginning of end game is the mineral deal. End of the end game is to contain both Russia and China through entanglement in Eurasia and Asia.
On April 30, 2025, the United States and Ukraine signed the Ukraine–United States Mineral Resources Agreement in Washington, D.C. This agreement established a joint Reconstruction Investment Fund aimed at facilitating Ukraine’s postwar recovery and granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s critical mineral resources, including rare-earth elements, oil, and gas.
The agreement was signed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. Following the signing, Ukraine’s parliament ratified the agreement on 8th May 2025, with overwhelming support. The deal was seen as a strategic move to bolster Ukraine’s economy and strengthen ties with the U.S., especially amid ongoing conflict with Russia. This deal was a revised version from initial one signed during Biden administration.
Before the deal, when Zelensky visited oval office, Trump said that Ukraine owes to US approximately $500 billion in past military and financial assistance through future mineral revenues. This was a pivotal change, as earlier drafts had proposed that Ukraine’s mineral wealth be used to compensate for previous aid. The deal ensures that both nations have equal say in its administration.
This fund is designed to reinvest revenues from new mineral and energy projects into Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts and first 10 years all the profits will go to this. So, it is clear that during the Russia Ukraine war, America’s military industrial complex earn profits from most of the military equipment. The oil and gas which most of the Europe would buy from Russia has now moved to US imports.
Now mineral deal also landed in US favour. Then what is the next objective. Helping Russia means helping China. Containing Russia means containing China. China is the pacing challenge for United States. All estaimates of US intelligence agencies suggest that China is likely to launch massive military invasion of Taiwan.
As per the Taiwan Relations Act, United States federal law that was passed on 10th April 1979, after the U.S. switched formal diplomatic recognition from Republic of China to People’s Republic of China, US is bound to support Taiwan in case of a war between Beijinig and Taipei.
The West including US has been accusing China that Beijing is supplying Moscow the crucial military equipment. Iran and North Korea are other Russian partners that stood behind Russia through thick and thin.
These all nations are anti- US. So if war stops and Russia wins, these nations under Chinese influence would move to China’s support in taking over Taiwan militarily. So for containing China, US has devised a new Indo- Pacific strategy. US is known for changing its ally and partners as its geo-political interests get shifted.
USA wants anyone against china to be in its fold. Those who are pro- China it wooes through trade and economic relations or otherwise US agencies like CIA use hybrid warfare to realize its geo-political game.
Interestingly, you would recall that JD Vance was in India on 22nd February when Pahalgam attack happened. Soon after the short conflict between India and Pakistan after India’s precision surgical strikes on Pakistan, both nations announced the ceasefire. President Trump on multiple occasions said that He stopped the war saying I told them not to fight but lets do trade.
However, by and large both nation’s Government due to internal politics denied the Trump claims. But what is that “Trade”, Trump was talking about. Some media report claimed that Trump administration has signed a deal with Pakistan on a Crypto- currency deal that may profit Trump family. Report mentioned that the deal was brokered by Pakistan Army Chief General… excuse me… now Field Marshal Asim Munir. However, later reports suggested that Strategic Bitcoin reserve set landed in Soup after senior Pakistani officials told select media that crypto currency remains banned in Pakistan.
So what is the “trade” that Trump was talking about. The trade is mineral deal which US wants to struck with Pakistan as well as with India. There is already a running critical mineral deal with India. The US India TRUST or Transforming Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology initiative was signed for period of 7 years till 2030-31.
However, the US face was exposed when Pakistan’s Commerce Minister Jam Kamal told media that Pakistan and US exploring critical mineral deal. Pakistan faces a potential 29% tariff on exports to the United States due to a $3 billion trade surplus with USA, under tariffs announced by Washington last month on countries around the world.
Tariffs were subsequently suspended for 90 days so negotiations could take place. Pakistan has huge rare earth mineral reserves in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtoonkhwah. There has been Balooch insurgency and local sessessionist groups launch attacks on Pakistani forces. In such circumstances US mineral deal would mean Pakistan may allow US military boots on Pakistani soil. Moreover, China also has presence due to its BRI project which is known as China Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The US deal with Pakistan may mean troubles for India as US may arm twist India in UNSC if Pakistan leverage USA on Kashmir issue. This is upto Indian Government to read the developments in perspective. If Ukraine is USA’s proxy in Russia Ukraine war than Russia is China’s proxy.
Similarly US would try to leverage India to behave as its proxy against China in Indo- Pacific while China would certainly leverage Pakistan as its proxy against India. In any case a conflict with Pakistan can be leveraged by USA only when two front war happens. US has played to present itself as friend of both Ukraine and Russia. Similarly, if mineral deal materializes it will present itself as friend of both India and Pakistan while squeezing both to its own end game plan.
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