The next global conflict may not begin over oil… A silent war is unfolding beneath the surface of global politics a war over the minerals that power modern civilisation. No rare earths means no missiles. No lithium means no drones. No gallium means no advanced radar systems. Behind every fighter jet every AI chip every electric vehicle lies a hidden geopolitical battle over critical minerals. And that battle is now moving to the Indo-Pacific. Critical minerals are now the backbone of modern warfare. The 20th century was defined by oil politics. The 21st century may be defined by lithium wars, semiconductor supply chains and rare earth diplomacy.
For decades, China controlled the world’s mineral chokepoints. And the QUAD has just entered the battlefield. The 4 nation QUAD wants India to become a major manufacturing and refining hub in a new Indo-Pacific supply chain architecture. This is not just an economic initiative. This is supply-chain warfare. The QUAD’s new Critical Minerals Framework could reshape global technology, defence production and Indo-Pacific geopolitics. Can India become the trusted mineral and manufacturing hub of the democratic world? The new QUAD Critical Minerals Initiative may be the beginning of that transformation. What does this mean for India, Indo-Pacific security and the future of strategic technology?”
Shailesh Kumar, National Defence
New Delhi, 28th May 2026
As the world watches the Middle East awaiting US – Iran nuclear deal, another strategic battle quietly unfolded in Asia. Four foreign ministers from QUAD nations, all maritime democracies met in New Delhi and chalked out a plan to stabilize the world. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Japan’s foreign minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and India’s external affairs minister Dr. S. Jaishankar expanded cooperation in critical minerals and energy while unveiling new measures to boost maritime surveillance and port infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific. This can be considered a new beginning of the great game in the indo pacific a pivot to india after a lull in relationship over Trump Tariffs. QUAD leaders summit was not held last year owing to such differences.
The joint statement released by US Department of State listed some key initiatives include that include Quad 1) Initiative on Indo-Pacific Energy Security, 2) the Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration initially in the Indian Ocean Region as well as through subject matter expert exchanges and tabletop exercises; 3) Quad Critical Minerals Framework and 4) the Quad countries agreed to work, in coordination with the Government of Fiji, to advance port infrastructure and associated activities in the country.
Before we dwell into Critical minerals strategy, lets first talk about port in Fiji. Over the past decade, China expanded influence in Pacific island nations Fiji through infrastructure loans, telecom projects, police cooperation, and political engagement. Countering China’s Pacific Expansion. Pacific sea lanes are becoming strategically contested. Ports in island regions are critical because they become refueling hubs, cargo handling points, repair and maintenance centers, disaster relief staging areas, and naval logistics facilities. Even if officially “commercial,” modern ports can later support: coast guards, naval visits, surveillance operations, humanitarian missions, and military deployments. This is exactly why China built or invested in ports across Gwadar, Hambantota, Djibouti, and elsewhere particularly around India as part of its “String of Pearls” strategy. The QUAD now applying similar infrastructure logic in Fiji alarms Beijing. Fiji sits in the South Pacific between the Australia,
the U.S. Pacific network, and sea routes connecting Asia-Pacific regions. Whoever builds long-term infrastructure influence in Fiji gains the maritime access, diplomatic influence,
and logistical reach across the Pacific Islands region.
Fiji port is symbolically important because it is the first joint infrastructure project of the QUAD. China fears “encirclement” in the Indo-Pacific. From Beijing’s perspective, the pattern looks worrying as it finds itself encircled by AUKUS in the South Pacific, U.S. alliances with Japan and Philippines in South China Sea, India becoming more active in Indo-Pacific maritime security, and now QUAD infrastructure projects in Pacific Islands. China believes these initiatives collectively aim to constrain Chinese naval expansion, monitor Chinese maritime movement, and weaken Beijing’s long-term leverage in the Pacific. Chinese Government’s mouth piece Global Times quoting Chen Hong, director of the Asia-Pacific Studies Center at East China Normal University wrote “Seemingly focusing on maritime surveillance, port construction, critical minerals and energy security, the Quad actually securitizes economic matters and turns development issues into bloc-based competition with clear strategic aims”.
Now coming to The “Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance” initiative announced in the QUAD joint statement on 26 May 2026 basically means the four QUAD countries will jointly monitor activity across the Indo-Pacific oceans much more closely using satellites, drones, naval patrol aircraft like P8i, radar systems, coast guards, undersea monitoring, and real-time intelligence sharing. In practical terms, the QUAD is trying to build a shared maritime “eyes and ears” network across the Indo-Pacific. The purpose is to monitor Chinese Naval and Coast Guard Activity, Maritime surveillance systems. Even if a Chinese submarine enters Indian Ocean, then Chinese should know Indian Navy has eyes and ears on them. The initiative will help building a “Common Operational Picture”. This simply means subsequently India, the U.S.,
Japan, and Australia will increasingly pool maritime information together.
With this initiative, instead of each country watching Chinese activities separately, they can now combine their radar feeds, satellite imagery, AIS ship tracking, sonar data, patrol reports, and intelligence inputs. This creates a near real-time map of what is happening across Indo-Pacific waters. Information Fusion Centre – Indian Ocean Region in Gurugram has capabilities and world class infrastructure to monitor such activities. The Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness initiative means knowing who is doing what at sea. That means we can track warships, fishing fleets, submarines, cargo ships, illegal fishing, smuggling, piracy, and suspicious “dark ships” that switch off transponders.
How effective could be the joint efforts for free and open Indo- Pacific for safety and security exemplified by Chinese reaction. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says, “China has stated its position on Quad on multiple occasions. Cooperation between countries should be conducive to regional peace, stability and prosperity, and not target any third party”. Chinese Global Times quoted reaction of Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University saying that “securitizing economic issues runs counter to the interests and aspirations of countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Their so-called cooperation on critical minerals and energy security is not a purely market-oriented collaboration. Chen says, Despite rhetoric about a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” the grouping’s true aim is to reshape regional order through exclusive blocs. Regional security cannot be achieved via surveillance, nor can energy security be realized by excluding China”.
Now coming to the most important decision of QUAD Foreign Ministers to launch “Critical Minerals Framework Initiative” that has really created ripples in the Chinese establishment. Critical Minerals are the invisible, weaponized building blocks of our modern existence. Without them, the modern world grinds to a dead halt. Artificial intelligence servers can’t process data. Electric vehicles can’t drive. Guided missiles can’t track targets. We are talking about nonfuel minerals like lithium, cobalt, gallium, and seventeen rare earth elements. Not only for militaries around the world but for most industries rare earth minerals supply chains are terrifyingly vulnerable.
Right now, the global economy relies on a massive single-source monopoly. China doesn’t just mine these minerals; it dominates their purification. Beijing controls roughly 90% of global graphite processing, 85-90% of rare earth refining, 70% of cobalt, and 65% of lithium.
And China is not afraid to weaponize this dominance. Following an escalating trade war, Beijing completely blocked the export of rare earth magnets, crippling defense, clean mobility, and electronics sectors worldwide. A single geopolitical chokepoint can instantly paralyze global high-tech industries.
To the worst nightmare of the world, China rolled out sweeping export restrictions across 2025 and early 2026. This widened licensing requirements and dramatically cut shipments of key heavy rare earths—such as yttrium, dysprosium, and terbium well below historical levels. A massive restriction on the export of rare earth magnets vital for electric vehicles, wind turbines, defense missile systems, and fighter jets, spacecraft gyroscopes jeopardise the production lines. In mid-2025, Chinese rare earth exports plummeted from around 700 tons a month to below 50 tons almost overnight. China has even moved to redefine how these critical minerals are valued, considering proposals to peg elements like dysprosium to the price of gold and settling transactions in yuan rather than US dollars to maximize its geopolitical leverage.
QUAD countries like Australia in response to China’s supply weaponisation, has aggressively cracked down on Chinese state-backed influence within its own borders. Just recently, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers issued strict disposal orders forcing a string of China-linked investors including the Yuxiao Fund to immediately sell off their stakes in Northern Minerals. Northern Minerals controls the Browns Range project in Western Australia, which holds major deposits of dysprosium. Australia blocked these stealth takeovers specifically to keep its domestic heavy rare earth projects out of Beijing’s direct control.
The hurry for a critical mineral framework initiative started taking shape when in November 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated in parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would constitute an “existential crisis for Japan,” legally allowing Japan to exercise collective self-defense and potentially intervene militarily. Beijing fiercely condemned the remarks. By January and February 2026, China’s Ministry of Commerce formalised a severe economic counter-response, rolling out aggressive export controls targeted directly at Japan. Since December 2025, Chinese exports to Japan of dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium oxide have effectively ceased, down to nearly zero except for minor, isolated shipments. On January 6, 2026, Beijing enacted stricter “Dual-Use Item” export controls specifically aimed at Japan. The Chinese Foreign Ministry explicitly stated that these curbs target Japanese military end-uses, civilian conglomerates with defense divisions, and any applications that could aid Japan’s “remilitarization” or alleged nuclear ambitions. The precursor for such a restriction was Japan’s decision in 2025 to export six second-hand Abukuma-class frigates to the Philippines. It also clinched a $6.5 billion agreement with Australia for the export of Mogami-class frigates, marking Japan’s first post-war operational warship export order. he curbs specifically target major Japanese conglomerates involved in shipbuilding and aerospace such as divisions of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Alongside rare earths, China has choked off the export of gallium to Japan—a specialty metal that is absolutely vital for next-generation semiconductor manufacturing and microchips.
Chinese action to ban rare earth critical minerals supply to USA was more severe. Driven heavily by Chinese retaliation against US chip export bans and aggressive tariff policies, The escalation peaked between December 2024 and April 2025. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued an unprecedented directive that explicitly prohibited, in principle, any export of gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to US end-users. China dramatically expanded its restrictions by adding seven critical heavy rare earths—including terbium, dysprosium, and yttrium—to its strict export control list. Simultaneously, Beijing choked off the export of processed rare earth magnets, which are absolutely indispensable for American electric vehicles, defense missile guidance systems, and fighter jets. Following an intense trade showdown, US and Chinese leaders met at the APEC summit in late October 2025 to negotiate a temporary stand-down. However, US was looking in for resilient China independent supply chain and wanted to diversify its rare earths imports.
The US relies entirely on imports for 12 critical minerals, and imports over half of its needs for 29 others. It is a staggering vulnerability leaving the foundational materials of the future exposed to coercive market practices. But the geopolitical chessboard is being violently rewritten. To shatter this monopoly, four of the world’s powerhouse democracies have unleashed a massive counter-offensive.
China’s broad global export curbs and strict licensing regimes have directly disrupted Indian manufacturing, triggering an urgent defensive alignment between India and its Western allies. Beijing introduced a strict licensing regime and export curbs on both raw critical minerals and manufacturing machinery. This directly threatened India’s ambitious goal of reaching $120 billion in electronics exports, as domestic smartphone, defense, and clean mobility sectors rely heavily on upstream Chinese inputs. China’s broad restrictions on strategic electronics metals like gallium for microchips and graphite for EV battery anodes have created systemic procurement bottlenecks for Indian hardware manufacturers. To overcome Chinese restrictions, India officially became a signatory to the US-backed Pax Silica initiative, a diplomatic framework designed to build secure, innovation-driven supply chains specifically for critical minerals and artificial intelligence.
In December 2025 U.S., India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, the UK, the Netherlands, Israel, Singapore, and the UAE signed The Pax Silica, a U.S.-led international coalition launched to build secure, resilient supply chains for artificial intelligence and semiconductor technologies. It aims to reduce dependence on China for critical minerals and protect sensitive high-tech infrastructure among allied nations. Its core objective is to secure the “silicon stack” by coordinating policies, supply-chain mapping, co-investments, and the protection of critical infrastructure.
On the sidelines of QUAD Foreign Ministers Meeting, India and the United States signed a major bilateral agreement: the Framework for Securing Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths. Signed by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, this deal aligns the two nations to jointly mine, refine, process, and recycle rare earths within a “trusted network” to bypass China’s monopoly.
The larger framework for a resilient rare earth supply chain manifests in the QUAD Critical Minerals Initiative Framework. It isn’t just diplomatic paperwork it is a highly calculated, data-driven division of leaders designed to build an ironclad Indo-Pacific strategic corridor. Look at how the architecture distributes the weight. Australia acts as the bedrock, supplying massive, unrefined reserves of lithium and rare earths. Japan steps in as the master of advanced high-tech processing, metallurgy, and next-generation recycling. The United States injects the heavy financial muscle, advanced tech, and a massive defense ecosystem, backed by over 30 billion dollars in letters of interest, loans, and private sector investments. And sitting right in the center of this new economic alliance is India, seizing its biggest industrial opportunity in a generation.
While India possesses over 13 million tonnes of monazite sands – a goldmine containing over 7 million tonnes of rare earth oxides it has historically struggled with exploration and infrastructure. Backed by the newly minted 16,300 rupee National Critical Minerals Mission, India is establishing dedicated “Rare Earth Corridors” across four coastal states: Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. Combined with a 7,280 crore rupee incentive scheme to manufacture rare earth magnets locally, India is pivoting from a global IT hub into an industrial mineral powerhouse.
The race for critical mineral independence is no longer a future projection; it is a live geopolitical battle. By combining billions in capital with a locked-step strategic alliance, the QUAD is successfully breaking the single-source monopoly ensuring the technology of tomorrow remains secure, open, and democratic.
On the military front, security cooperation under the Quad framework has deepened into a regularized, multi-tiered system. In the first week of November, India hosted the “Cope India” joint air force exercise, with the United States as the core participant and Japan and Australia joining as observers. Meanwhile, Exercise Malabar 2025 brought together the navies of the four nations in Guam for one of the biggest Quad naval drills in the Pacific from October 28 to November 8.
The QUAD Foreign Minister’s meeting was closely watched by China. The counter moves were planned much earlier. Arm twisting, verbal threats and territorial aggression are Chinese policy. So it manifested in China Pakistan collusion. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Beijing from 23 to 26th May coinciding QUAD meet in Delhi. After QUAD meeting and joint statement, China and Pakistan also issued a joint statement strongly reaffirming support for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and expanding its future scope. Both leaders described bilateral ties as an “important wealth and a strategic asset” and agreed to push forward the “high-quality development” of CPEC 2.0. Both China and Pakistan plans to developing Gwadar Port into a regional connectivity hub, upgrading the Karakoram Highway and improving Khunjerab Pass connectivity while welcoming “third parties” to participate in CPEC projects under mutually agreed arrangements and expanding cooperation in industrial parks, infrastructure and connectivity projects. India took this very seriously. Not only this, under Chinese Presidency, Pakistan raked up Jammu and Kashmir issue in UN Security Council the very same day when Chiense Foreign Minister Wang Yi presided the UNSC meeting. India’s Ministry of External Affairs strongly responded by saying and I quote “The Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir has been, is, and will always remain an integral and inalienable part of India.” India also reiterated its long-standing opposition to CPEC because parts of the corridor pass through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). MEA said “Any third-party involvement in the region is unacceptable,”and again termed CPEC as “illegal and illegitimate.”
While China uses Pakistan and its proxies as stooge to arm twist India and terms QUAD as a bloc against China, the world has to see Chinese silent wars and aggression that makes the world most unstable, vulnerable and volatile harming peace and stability in Indo- Pacific.
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